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src="data:image/png;base64,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"><sup id="newshotnum" style="display: none;"></sup></a> <i id="audioPlayerbox" style="display: none;"></i> <a class="hasspeech f-fr" onclick="listenAudio('https://audiocdn.yicai.com/audio/1784bea9-f330-41c0-91d2-e36049d56474.mp3')">聽新聞</a> </p><p class="names">作者：第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院責(zé)編：林潔琛</p><div id="44wmk0u" class="m-smallshare"></div></div> <div id="oes4ouw" class="intro"> IMF預(yù)測(cè)2020年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度將低于2019年的2.9%，而就在12天前，該預(yù)測(cè)值還是3.2%。 </div> <div id="w0yqmo4" class="m-txt"><div class="uyie4ge" id="multi-text" class="f-cb"><p>根據(jù)約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)的疫情數(shù)據(jù)，截至3月4日（UTC時(shí)間）全球（除中國）新冠肺炎確診病例為14696例，當(dāng)日新增確診病例為2155例，僅次于前一日的2409例。出現(xiàn)新冠肺炎病例的國家數(shù)增加了4個(gè)，分別為匈牙利、波蘭、列支敦士登和突尼斯，前三者均位于申根區(qū)。根據(jù)世界衛(wèi)生組織的數(shù)據(jù)，除中國外已經(jīng)有31個(gè)國家出現(xiàn)了本地傳染病例。越來越多的國家出現(xiàn)確診病例的同時(shí)，出現(xiàn)本地感染的國家也越來越多，這意味著各國的第一道防線都在失守，每個(gè)國家都應(yīng)該對(duì)可能出現(xiàn)的社區(qū)傳染做好準(zhǔn)備。</p> <p>3月4日疫情最嚴(yán)重的韓國、伊朗和意大利的確診病例分別新增了436例、586例與587例。申根區(qū)國家的疫情正持續(xù)惡化，26個(gè)申根協(xié)議國僅剩3個(gè)未發(fā)現(xiàn)確診病例，3月4日申根區(qū)國家確診病例為4206例，占海外病例的28.6%，新增確診病例為930例，占海外新增病例比重高達(dá)43.2%。</p> <p>3月4日美國確診病例達(dá)到了153例，新增病例31例，為數(shù)據(jù)公布以來的最大日增幅。隨著疫情在美國的蔓延，美國疾控中心（CDC）在對(duì)美國新冠肺炎現(xiàn)狀描述中刪除了“新冠肺炎并未在美國社群中進(jìn)行傳播”的描述，而改成了“新冠病毒在美國一些地區(qū)的社區(qū)出現(xiàn)了傳播，這增加了新冠病毒對(duì)于這些社區(qū)的威脅。對(duì)于美國和全球而言，新冠病毒對(duì)于公共安全的威脅非常高。”</p> <p>IMF總裁克里斯塔利娜•格奧爾基耶娃3月4日表示，IMF預(yù)測(cè)2020年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度將低于2019年的2.9%，并表示IMF將在未來幾周發(fā)布修正后的預(yù)測(cè)，而就在12天前，該預(yù)測(cè)值還是3.2%。</p> <p>經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景黯淡正沖擊原油的需求。信息服務(wù)公司IHS Markit 3月4日表示，2020年第一季度全球原油需求將比去年同期下降380萬桶/天，這將是有史以來最大的季度跌幅。本周，高盛能源研究主管預(yù)計(jì)今年上半年全球原油需求將下降210萬桶/天。</p> <p>中國方面，3月4日全國新增確診病例139例。全國確診病例和疑似病例分別為80409例和522例。除湖北地區(qū)新增確診病例的5例中有2例是海外輸入病例。當(dāng)日，全國共16個(gè)省市已連續(xù)一周無新增確診病例。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖1 全球除中國確診與新增確診人數(shù)（世界衛(wèi)生組織數(shù)據(jù)）</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/5aa869699d2549f7aad145a0631cec7d.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：世界衛(wèi)生組織、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖2 全球除中國確診與新增確診人數(shù)（約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)數(shù)據(jù)）</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/13166823672c9ac6b2059aeb5141336d.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與工程中心、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p>約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球除中國確診病例呈現(xiàn)快速增長態(tài)勢(shì)，韓國、伊朗與意大利是疫情國際上疫情最為嚴(yán)重的國家，4日新增病例分別為851例、835例與466例，占當(dāng)日海外新增病例的74.6%，這一數(shù)據(jù)較前日有所下降。根據(jù)世界衛(wèi)生組織的數(shù)據(jù)，除中國外，已經(jīng)有31個(gè)國家出現(xiàn)了本地傳染病例。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖3 除中國主要國家累計(jì)確診病例</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/e7d9e5f9c2e8e6655241fe10c691d9a6.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/35153208e8f26102787fdb8408592303.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/bc646511f4305d4d19d0c5313b7fa041.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與工程中心</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖4 除中國主要國家新增確診病例</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/146d3150c583789a06710d1abc924520.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/2b45ad199701384999a99e06754f4778.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/1cba953bdac427702cc7695d78cc3c97.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與工程中心、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">全球除中國的死亡率上升至1.8%，其中伊朗的死亡率已降至3.1%。</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖5 全球除中國死亡率</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/b45bc453fbed1b55371a18319ad63b57.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與工程中心、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖6 除中國疫情中心國家主要國家死亡率</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/500cd66e7a18a6b927b72a80a15f5272.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與工程中心、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖7 全球除中國死亡與治愈人數(shù)</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/d269997591dd7b0508bcc8be9c079822.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與工程中心</span></p> <p>中國方面，根據(jù)國家衛(wèi)健委數(shù)據(jù)，3月4日全國確診病例和疑似病例分別為80409例和522例；新增確診病例139例，新納入疑似病例143例。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖8 中國累計(jì)確診病例</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/09312b974682334c0e8bc46af54148cc.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、湖北省衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖9 中國現(xiàn)有疑似病例</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/a0edbfe575a4f6289640dfcdfe10b42e.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、湖北省衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p>3月4日全國在診病例繼續(xù)下降2081例至25352例。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖10 中國在診病例數(shù)</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/0711236219aa8f22e427d4fbef119afc.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、各個(gè)省市衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖11 中國新增確診及疑似病例</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/8874fdbf1c08b7de794e1a64250a335a.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、湖北省衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)</span></p> <p>湖北報(bào)告的確診病例和疑似病例分別為67466例和315例，新增確診病例134例，現(xiàn)有疑似病例較上日減少25例?，F(xiàn)有病例中重癥4747例、危重癥1041例。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖12 湖北新增確診及現(xiàn)有疑似病例</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/325eb4d96adaeff8b8a07c619139e86a.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：湖北省衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p>除湖北以外省份新增確診病例5例。“湖北周邊地區(qū)”(河南、湖南、安徽、江西、重慶)連續(xù)5日新增病例為0，外來人口密集地區(qū)（廣東、浙江、北京、上海、江蘇）新增確診病例為3例。其中，浙江省的2例新增確診病例為境外輸入病例。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖13 湖北周邊地區(qū)及外來人口密集地區(qū)新增和累計(jì)確診病例</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/612859cb869a15fd46076369377a9686.jpg" style="width: 723px; height: 397px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、各省市衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)</span></p> <p>全國與湖北重癥率呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)，死亡率趨于平穩(wěn)。非湖北地區(qū)的重癥率持續(xù)走低，死亡率保持穩(wěn)定。目前，全國累計(jì)康復(fù)人數(shù)達(dá)到了52045人，累計(jì)死亡人數(shù)為3012人。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖14 湖北、湖北以外地區(qū)及全國死亡率</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/7e40b534faaac24f755e533797c0f733.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、湖北省衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖15 湖北、湖北以外地區(qū)及全國重癥率</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/85f9989fbd5cfccfdf22a5127f07b518.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color:#A9A9A9;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、湖北省衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)、第一財(cái)經(jīng)研究院計(jì)算</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>圖16 中國累計(jì)康復(fù)和死亡病例</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2020/03/c494c39f1a480eef1642e3f06d31b0ea.jpg" style="width: 693px; height: 389px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國衛(wèi)生健康委員會(huì)</p> </div><div class="cmcus0u" id="jb_report">舉報(bào)</div> <div id="ggs0uce" class="person person-1 f-cb"><h4>文章作者</h4><ul> <a href="/author/1251.html"><li 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