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src="data:image/png;base64,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"><sup id="newshotnum" style="display: none;"></sup></a> <i id="audioPlayerbox" style="display: none;"></i> <a class="hasspeech f-fr" onclick="listenAudio('https://audiocdn.yicai.com/audio/070bf31d-7451-40e6-9ece-119d8cf33408.mp3')">聽新聞</a> </p><p class="names">作者：梅新育責(zé)編：任紹敏</p><div id="lvo62ca" class="m-smallshare"></div></div> <div id="nyr2ihr" class="intro"> 總體偏少的降水時空高度集中到了不利的時間和地區(qū)，導(dǎo)致我國今年在嚴重旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)中損失巨大。即使不考慮擴大內(nèi)需的宏觀調(diào)控需求，新增萬億國債主要投資水利領(lǐng)域，實屬必要。 </div> <div id="neadchv" class="m-txt"><div class="7owsowq" id="multi-text" class="f-cb"><p>中央財政將在今年四季度增發(fā)2023年國債1萬億元，擬全部通過轉(zhuǎn)移支付方式安排給地方，集中力量支持災(zāi)后恢復(fù)重建和彌補防災(zāi)減災(zāi)救災(zāi)短板。</p> <p><strong>今年自然災(zāi)害和氣候變化趨勢決定增發(fā)國債投資集中水利</strong></p> <p>根據(jù)應(yīng)急管理部發(fā)布的《2023年前三季度全國自然災(zāi)害情況》報告，總體偏少的降水時空高度集中到了不利的時間和地區(qū)，導(dǎo)致我國今年在嚴重旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)中損失巨大。河南等省初夏持續(xù)連陰雨，本已導(dǎo)致我國今年夏糧比上年減產(chǎn)；進入“七下八上”后，“杜蘇芮”超強臺風(fēng)、海河流域性特大洪水、松遼流域嚴重汛情等重大災(zāi)害20余天內(nèi)相繼來襲，給我國造成重大人員傷亡和財產(chǎn)損失。</p> <p>結(jié)果，前三季度我國旱災(zāi)受災(zāi)人次達到2012.2萬，農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)面積達到318.68萬公頃，直接經(jīng)濟損失197.1億元；洪澇和地質(zhì)災(zāi)害受災(zāi)人次5190.4萬，因災(zāi)死亡失蹤405人，倒塌房屋11.2萬間，直接經(jīng)濟損失2393億元；臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害受災(zāi)人次807.8萬，8人死亡失蹤，直接經(jīng)濟損失324.8億元，閩粵兩個經(jīng)濟大省受災(zāi)相對較重。</p> <p>在這樣的情況下，即使不考慮擴大內(nèi)需的宏觀調(diào)控需求，新增萬億國債主要投資水利領(lǐng)域，實屬必要。實際決策也是如此。據(jù)10月25日在國新辦國務(wù)院政策例行吹風(fēng)會上財政部副部長朱忠明所述，新批準增發(fā)的1萬億元國債資金將投向8個方面，高度集中于水利領(lǐng)域。</p> <p><strong>增發(fā)國債投資應(yīng)充分考慮帶動前沿新興技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展及平戰(zhàn)結(jié)合</strong></p> <p>增發(fā)國債投資已成國家決策，選擇確定具體項目成為當前工作重點，也是各地方競爭的焦點。9月以來，國家發(fā)改委會同有關(guān)部門初步篩選出符合條件的項目已有7000多個，國債資金需求超過1萬億元；各地方還在按照國債投向領(lǐng)域，抓緊再儲備一批項目并加快推進前期工作。在這種情況下，確定項目時尤其需要明確綜合效益最大化原則，為此，有3點需要關(guān)注：</p> <p>一是積極運用前沿新興技術(shù)，通過政府主導(dǎo)大規(guī)模水利固定資產(chǎn)投資，助力帶動前沿新興技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，其中最關(guān)鍵的是信息數(shù)字技術(shù)。</p> <p>二是平戰(zhàn)結(jié)合。在當前國際環(huán)境下，這一原則具有格外重要的意義。在正如火如荼激烈交鋒的俄烏沖突中，新卡霍夫卡水庫大壩等關(guān)鍵水利基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施先后成為打擊對象，對當?shù)厝嗣裆敭a(chǎn)安全造成巨大災(zāi)難，并顯著影響了戰(zhàn)場形勢，這些大規(guī)?，F(xiàn)代戰(zhàn)爭的經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)，值得我們認真總結(jié)汲取。</p> <p>三是項目規(guī)劃、安排不僅著眼當下，還要結(jié)合氣候變化趨勢及其影響，考慮中長期未來國民經(jīng)濟、社會發(fā)展和國家安全需求。</p> <p><strong>以前沿信息數(shù)字技術(shù)裝備水利投資</strong></p> <p>基于上述原則，首先討論運用前沿信息數(shù)字技術(shù)裝備水利工程投資及其平戰(zhàn)結(jié)合，以求一舉兩得，既提高水利工程運行效率，又在開放經(jīng)濟環(huán)境下帶動我國信息數(shù)字產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展。我國率先建成世界最先進數(shù)字化水利管理系統(tǒng)后，經(jīng)過數(shù)年運營成熟，可望成為我國海外工程承包和設(shè)備出口的新興增長點。在實踐中，水利基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施領(lǐng)域也有著現(xiàn)代信息數(shù)字技術(shù)運用的廣闊天地。</p> <p>在“2023年前三季度水利基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)進展和成效”新聞發(fā)布會上，水利部方面提出要建設(shè)數(shù)字孿生流域、數(shù)字孿生水網(wǎng)、數(shù)字孿生工程，實現(xiàn)預(yù)報預(yù)警預(yù)演預(yù)案功能，到2025年建成數(shù)字孿生水利體系1.0版，為水利決策管理提供前瞻性、科學(xué)性、精準性、安全性支持。就總體而言，這些“工程”可納入財政部方面所稱的此次國債投資第三個方向“自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急能力提升工程”：支持實施預(yù)警指揮工程、救援能力工程、巨災(zāi)防范工程和基層防災(zāi)工程。</p> <p>不僅如此，在我國近年來基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)進程中開發(fā)出來的一系列新興技術(shù)也完全可以，而且應(yīng)當積極探索投入水利建設(shè)現(xiàn)代化投資中。如今年才正式投入運營的湖北鄂州花湖機場，筆者在實地考察時注意到，該機場的全時全域智能跑道系統(tǒng)堪稱世界首創(chuàng)，這個系統(tǒng)關(guān)鍵在于其光柵列陣大容量光纖傳感網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)，由武漢理工大學(xué)光纖傳感技術(shù)與網(wǎng)絡(luò)國家工程研究中心研究開發(fā)，安全性不成問題，完全可以積極穩(wěn)妥探索使用于此次國債投資第四個方向“其他重點防洪工程”中的“病險水庫除險加固及安全監(jiān)測”領(lǐng)域，以及其他新建和待改建水庫、堤壩等項目。</p> <p>這項技術(shù)包括世界首創(chuàng)的在一根光纖上工業(yè)化制備數(shù)萬個光纖光柵傳感器，以及相應(yīng)的光柵列陣傳感解調(diào)儀表和長距離、大容量、高密度、高精度分布式光纖傳感監(jiān)測網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)，已在石油石化、交通、電力等領(lǐng)域投入應(yīng)用。如果應(yīng)用于水庫、湖泊、河流、海防等堤壩上，管理部門可實時監(jiān)測堤壩壓力等指標變動，實時發(fā)現(xiàn)險情，第一時間作出處置。同時，如果與大數(shù)據(jù)等技術(shù)結(jié)合，在制訂相關(guān)規(guī)劃、緊急情況時，還可以利用這套系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生的數(shù)據(jù)，準確判斷相關(guān)堤壩狀況，從而正確定位其功能。</p> <p><strong>因應(yīng)氣候變化趨勢，增加北方、西部地下水回灌和地下水庫工程投入</strong></p> <p>根據(jù)第三次國土調(diào)查主要數(shù)據(jù)公報，我國64%的耕地分布在秦嶺—淮河線以北，決定了我國糧食生產(chǎn)高度依賴北方。2020年，京、津、冀、晉、內(nèi)蒙古、黑、吉、遼、魯、豫、陜、隴、青、寧、新15個全北方省份糧食產(chǎn)量合計39646.7萬噸，占當年全國糧食總產(chǎn)量的59.2%；加上地跨秦嶺—淮河線南北的皖、蘇兩省糧食產(chǎn)量折半計入北方，以及地理區(qū)位屬于西南、氣候?qū)儆诒狈降奈鞑?，合?3623.75萬噸，占全國糧食總產(chǎn)量的65.2%。正常年景下，北方耕地穩(wěn)產(chǎn)高產(chǎn)比南方耕地更依賴水利與灌溉設(shè)施；因此，在我國氣候總體趨向暖濕化的當前時期，除地面水利灌溉工程外，我們還需要持續(xù)投入足夠資源，研究、開發(fā)地下水回灌技術(shù)，穩(wěn)步提升地下水位，建設(shè)地下水庫，給未來應(yīng)對氣候再次轉(zhuǎn)向干旱化時打下扎實基礎(chǔ)。</p> <p>在《有效灌溉面積大幅下降敲響糧食安全警鐘》一文中，筆者考察了20世紀50年代至21世紀10年代中國水、旱災(zāi)害受災(zāi)面積和成災(zāi)面積變化，結(jié)論是上世紀50年代后期以來中國氣候總體趨向干旱，在20世紀70年代急劇加速，到21世紀00年代達到高峰后開始逆轉(zhuǎn)，21世紀10年代旱災(zāi)面積大幅縮?。ㄈ绫?所示），并判斷21世紀20年代水災(zāi)面積可能明顯上升。</p> <p><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/11/35fa47898f0ece07c58ad743d5112620.jpg" style="width: 927px; height: 460px;" /></p> <p>在此基礎(chǔ)上，對比2020~2022年水旱災(zāi)害受災(zāi)面積和成災(zāi)面積與此前幾個年代、特別是21世紀10年代年均數(shù)據(jù)，可以看出21世紀20年代前3年水災(zāi)成災(zāi)面積比21世紀10年代年均數(shù)據(jù)下降幅度較小，而旱災(zāi)受災(zāi)面積、成災(zāi)面積均腰斬，甚至下降更多，符合筆者此前預(yù)言的發(fā)展趨勢。</p> <p>地下水資源沒有地表水庫等水利設(shè)施的蒸發(fā)損失，更適應(yīng)用作時間跨度數(shù)年乃至數(shù)十年、上百年的長期儲備水資源。而在20世紀50年代以來中國氣候干旱化進程中，中國北方地下水位已經(jīng)大幅度下降，華北形成了眾多地下水漏斗，發(fā)生了較大規(guī)模地下海水入侵。即使在全國供水保障頭號重點北京市，地下水位下降也相當明顯：1960年，北京市平原地區(qū)地下水平均埋深3.19米，1980年下降至7.24米，1998年12.88米，2000年15.36米，2015年下降到25.75米，2016年25.23米。相對于1960年，僅北京一市地下水儲量2016年就累計減少112.8億立方米，相當于北京市2022年用水總量（40.0億立方米）的2.82倍。近年地下水位雖然有所回升，尚未達到1998年水平，更不用說與1980年、1990年相比了。</p> <p>今年是北京豐水年，1月1日至11月5日，全市累計降水712毫米，比多年平均同期降水量（577毫米）高23%，比去年同期降水量（449.5毫米）高58%，比去年全年降水量（585.4毫米）還多22%。且北京市地下水水位年內(nèi)變化特征為7~10月地下水水位受降水補給而持續(xù)上升，11~12月基本持平；但就是在今年10月28日，北京全市平原區(qū)地下水平均埋深也達到了15.25米。</p> <p>有鑒于此，考慮到未來國家經(jīng)濟、人口構(gòu)成、安全等各方面需求，我們需要抓住我國氣候總體趨向暖濕化的當前時機，不僅擴大建設(shè)地面水利灌溉工程，還應(yīng)以黃淮海、華北、西北等北方地區(qū)為重點，持續(xù)投資研究、開發(fā)地下水回灌及其保質(zhì)技術(shù)，穩(wěn)步提升地下水位，建設(shè)地下水庫。其中，在新疆地區(qū)，鑒于兵團墾區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化水平領(lǐng)先全國，勞動生產(chǎn)率和單產(chǎn)遙遙領(lǐng)先，應(yīng)將兵團墾區(qū)等高生產(chǎn)力農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)作為上述地下水利工程建設(shè)重點。</p> <p><strong>（作者系商務(wù)部研究院研究員，本文僅代表個人意見）</strong></p> </div><div class="yxkrgqp" id="jb_report">舉報</div> <div id="wqe7ljt" class="person person-1 f-cb"><h4>文章作者</h4><ul> <a href="/author/1805.html"><li id="hrpas22" class="dt-ych type1"><span id="vknov2d" class="avatar"><img src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/editors/636492235085978178.jpg" onerror="imgError(this,7)"></span><p>梅新育</p></li></a> </ul></div> </div></div> <div id="71winmm" class="m-ad4 dfb-ad" data-position="middleBanner1"></div> <div id="dovhdrg" class="m-ad4 dfb-ad" data-position="middleBanner2"></div><div id="mhz7b7x" class="m-content f-mb20"> <div id="h2i7jys" class="m-con m-box7"><div 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