6月FOMC：“?！倍弧爸埂?/title><link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/aliplayer/aliplayer-min_2.25.1.css"><link href="/css/news.css?2d5db72aa644a01539b5" rel="stylesheet"><meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> <script>var V_PATH="/";window.onerror=function(){ return true; };</script> </head><body> <h1><a href="http://baxikafei.com/">亚洲中文字乱码免费播放,精品国产日韩专区欧美第一页,亚洲中文有码字幕青青,亚洲综合另类专区在线</a></h1> <div style="position:fixed;left:-9000px;top:-9000px;"><strong id="rlpr9"><dl id="rlpr9"></dl></strong><var id="rlpr9"><legend id="rlpr9"><form id="rlpr9"><menuitem id="rlpr9"></menuitem></form></legend></var><output id="rlpr9"></output><big id="rlpr9"><strong id="rlpr9"><rp id="rlpr9"><meter id="rlpr9"></meter></rp></strong></big><form id="rlpr9"><address id="rlpr9"></address></form><video id="rlpr9"><span id="rlpr9"><label id="rlpr9"><strong id="rlpr9"></strong></label></span></video><dl id="rlpr9"><dfn id="rlpr9"><u id="rlpr9"><font 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id="5vbgc3a" class="g-bd f-cb"><div id="srz4nto" class="m-adtopbanner f-cb"><div id="38mqyqy" class="m-ad8 dfb-ad" data-position="topBanner"></div><div id="447vsuu" class="m-ad9 dfb-ad" data-position="topBannerRight"></div></div><div id="xorh1o7" class="g-mn g-mn-w g-mn-mt1 f-fl"><div id="odl9ghc" class="m-crumb"><a href="/">首頁</a> > <a href="/news/">新聞</a> > <span id="oakkqhq" class="z-crt">一財(cái)號(hào)</span></div><div id="kfyhw0n" class="m-text"> <div id="p9d2qqp" class="m-floating m-abs"><div id="1rcdpbb" class="side m-share"><h4>分享到：</h4><ul><li id="kexm5jw" class="li-1" onclick="shareWX();">微信</li><li id="ylvdy1g" class="li-2" onclick="shareTo('weibo');">微博</li><li id="rllchji" class="li-3" onclick="shareTo('qq');">QQ</li></ul></div></div><div id="b1j8ba6" class="m-layer" id="shareWXPop"><table><tbody><tr><td><div id="qssk4u8" class="lywrap"><div id="uzj8ny7" class="lytt"><h2 class="u-tt">分享到微信</h2><span id="ebo7zti" class="lyclose" onclick="CloseThisLayer(this);"></span></div><div id="0slnjmu" class="m-modifyhead" style="padding-top: 0"><img class="m-qrcode" width="180" height="180"><p style="text-align: left; width: 90%; margin: 16px auto;">打開微信，點(diǎn)擊底部的“發(fā)現(xiàn)”，<br>使用“掃一掃”即可將網(wǎng)頁分享至朋友圈。</p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div id="bnzs1vw" class="title f-pr"><h1>6月FOMC：“?！倍弧爸埂?/h1><p class="f-cb"> <em class="f-fl">2023-06-15 18:25:58</em><a class="hashot f-fr"><img src="data:image/png;base64,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"><sup id="newshotnum" style="display: none;"></sup></a> </p><p class="names">作者：劉剛責(zé)編：蔡嘉誠</p><div id="xmutxnp" class="m-smallshare"></div></div> <div id="vbn184p" class="m-txt"><div class="c2k7cc8" id="multi-text" class="f-cb"><p>劉剛李赫民楊萱庭李雨婕</p> <p>北京時(shí)間今天凌晨，6月FOMC會(huì)議落下帷幕。與市場預(yù)期一致，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)選擇“按兵不動(dòng)”，基準(zhǔn)利率維持在5~5.25%。由于“暫停”加息在此次會(huì)議前已經(jīng)是普遍共識(shí)，因此沒有太多意外。相比之下，市場更關(guān)注的是7月和之后會(huì)議是否還會(huì)再度加息。今年以來，市場對(duì)宏觀和政策變量高度不確定性導(dǎo)致了較大的“鐘擺效應(yīng)”。市場對(duì)美國增長預(yù)期從年初的“軟著陸”到2月經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期后的“不著陸”，再到3月銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)爆發(fā)后的“硬著陸”，貨幣政策預(yù)期也從停止加息到加速加息再到三季度降息；銀行危機(jī)暫告段落后，降息預(yù)期也隨之推遲到年底。</p> <p>圖表1：年初以來，貨幣政策預(yù)期已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了鐘擺式的擺動(dòng)</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/fa688b3c2a133d645b90dd9afc9777e7.jpg" style="width: 746px; height: 466px;" /></p> <p>圖表2：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)點(diǎn)陣圖長期目標(biāo)利率估計(jì)</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/4562a65d6d357f3d0940ff2ab7e6de50.jpg" style="width: 745px; height: 475px;" /></p> <p>從結(jié)果上看，相比會(huì)議前市場預(yù)期7月可能還有一次加息的預(yù)期，<strong>美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)更新的“點(diǎn)陣圖”預(yù)計(jì)可能還會(huì)有兩次加息（從3月5.125%上調(diào)至5.625%），是明顯偏鷹的，</strong>美股因此一度明顯回調(diào)，隨后在鮑威爾略微緩和的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)發(fā)言提振下才收復(fù)失地。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議聲明表示此次暫停加息是希望有更多信息來監(jiān)測(cè)已有緊縮政策滯后的效應(yīng)[1]。同時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)也大幅上調(diào)了對(duì)于年底的核心PCE和GDP增速的預(yù)測(cè)。</p> <p>圖表3：2023年6月FOMC點(diǎn)陣圖</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/b9a18ba5e62c4d2a7e2e9c48afbd0bdd.jpg" style="width: 757px; height: 455px;" /></p> <p>圖表4：不同會(huì)議時(shí)點(diǎn)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/cbc50ece4e035f779ff87d4fbb117e56.jpg" style="width: 750px; height: 456px;" /></p> <p><strong>一、加息路徑：“跳過”6月，7月可能再加，9月為時(shí)尚早；年底或逐步打開降息預(yù)期</strong></p> <p>此次會(huì)議美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決定“按兵不動(dòng)”，將基準(zhǔn)利率維持在5~5.25%，完全符合市場預(yù)期，會(huì)前CME利率期貨隱含6月不加息概率達(dá)94%。“跳過”此次會(huì)議不加息的理由，是為了有更多信息來觀察已有貨幣緊縮的效果。<strong>畢竟，在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)看來，3月SVB和5月第一共和銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)才剛剛過去，可能“沒有那么緊迫”6月連續(xù)加息，平衡一下短期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和長期目標(biāo)，以暫時(shí)不加息的“時(shí)間”換后續(xù)再加息的“空間”。</strong></p> <p><strong>但是，讓市場意外同時(shí)讓未來路徑更不清晰的是，此次會(huì)議更新的“點(diǎn)陣圖”預(yù)計(jì)年內(nèi)可能還有兩次加息</strong>（上一次預(yù)測(cè)更新是在3月會(huì)議，恰逢SVB風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件，因此當(dāng)時(shí)“點(diǎn)陣圖”是預(yù)計(jì)年內(nèi)加息基本在5月就會(huì)停止）。相比會(huì)前市場普遍預(yù)期的7月再加息一次，是明顯超出預(yù)期的?？赡艿睦斫馐?，兩個(gè)月過去后，銀行危機(jī)與債務(wù)上限都暫時(shí)平息，經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)也依然維持強(qiáng)勁，<strong>因此最終的加息終點(diǎn)還是需要更高一些以匹配預(yù)計(jì)更高的增長和通脹預(yù)測(cè)</strong>（相比3月時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)的0.4%和3.6%，此次會(huì)議將年底的GDP和核心PCE預(yù)測(cè)調(diào)高至1%和3.9%）。<strong>因此，可以理解為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)試圖在短期防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和長期控通脹之間平衡。</strong></p> <p><strong>從預(yù)期引導(dǎo)的角度，一個(gè)更為“鷹派”的路徑暗示可以防止市場過于“前瞻性”的樂觀通過預(yù)期交易抵消收緊效果，使得金融條件維持在緊縮區(qū)域一段時(shí)間，</strong>這可能也是鮑威爾在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示7月加息并沒有完全決定（a “live” one）的原因[2]。不過客觀的講，這也的確造成了預(yù)期的混亂。<strong>從CME利率期貨看，市場對(duì)于再加息兩次的點(diǎn)陣圖預(yù)測(cè)并不完全“買賬”，</strong>市場預(yù)期7月再度加息的概率為66%，并維持在這一水平，直到2023年12月或2024年1月降息。</p> <p><strong>我們認(rèn)為，7月加息可能性的確存在，但判斷9月后再度加息為時(shí)尚早。</strong>從鮑威爾表態(tài)看，后續(xù)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)于現(xiàn)在“混亂”的加息路徑就尤為重要。7月存在加息可能性的原因是：1）上調(diào)核心PCE后，對(duì)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)來講需要有更高的加息終點(diǎn)“匹配”；2）7月FOMC時(shí)我們預(yù)計(jì)大概率能看到整體通脹在高基數(shù)等因素作用下快速回到3%附近，但核心通脹恰恰因?yàn)槿狈Ω呋鶖?shù)還維持高位，而且增長和就業(yè)市場也大概率維持韌性。判斷9月后再度加息為時(shí)尚早的原因是：1）同樣在高基數(shù)作用下，9月底核心通脹有望回到3.5%；2）中小銀行緊信用的效果可能也會(huì)逐步顯現(xiàn)。</p> <p>近期加拿大央行和澳大利亞央行加息暫停后的“意外”加息經(jīng)驗(yàn)同樣值得參考，加拿大在本輪加息周期中始終領(lǐng)先于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，整體經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境也有一定相似之處（服務(wù)型需求強(qiáng)、核心通脹粘性大、就業(yè)市場緊張等）。今年一季度，在通脹壓力持續(xù)緩解下加拿大央行率先暫停加息，3、4月均“按兵不動(dòng)”；但強(qiáng)于預(yù)期的需求、再度抬頭的通脹（4月CPI同比4.4% vs. 3月4.3%，為10個(gè)月以來首次回升）和具有韌性的核心通脹（4月核心CPI同比4.2%）使得加拿大央行在6月會(huì)議上“意外”加息25bp（此前OIS市場隱含加息概率為44.6%）。澳大利亞央行也在5月暫停加息后，“意外”上調(diào)現(xiàn)金利率25bp（此前期貨市場隱含加息概率僅為26.3%）。</p> <p><strong>對(duì)于市場更關(guān)注的降息，我們認(rèn)為年內(nèi)降息可能性不大，年底或可逐步打開對(duì)于明年的降息預(yù)期。</strong>在銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不進(jìn)一步發(fā)酵的前提下，<strong>我們認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在三季度可能基本達(dá)到停止加息的條件，</strong>但今年內(nèi)可能難以降息，年底或可逐步打開2024年的降息預(yù)期。我們測(cè)算信用收縮效果將在三季度開始加速顯現(xiàn)進(jìn)而壓制需求，但超額儲(chǔ)蓄緩慢釋放將使得消費(fèi)需求仍有韌性，四季度通脹甚至可能小幅翹尾、核心通脹難以明顯進(jìn)一步回落，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致貨幣政策或仍需維持偏緊。</p> <p><strong>二、增長與通脹：認(rèn)為核心通脹存在粘性，但增長仍有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)“軟著陸”</strong></p> <p>相比3月FOMC會(huì)議在銀行危機(jī)剛剛顯現(xiàn)時(shí)的預(yù)測(cè)，此次美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)于通脹和增長都做了進(jìn)一步的更新，如2023年底實(shí)際GDP同比從3月會(huì)議的0.4%抬升至當(dāng)前的1%、失業(yè)率從4.5%降至4.1%、PCE從3.3%調(diào)降至3.2%，但核心PCE從3.6%上調(diào)至3.9%。</p> <p>針對(duì)增長和通脹，鮑威爾表示只看到通脹放緩的早期跡象（only the earliest signs of disinflation），就業(yè)市場的緊張程度有所緩解（some loosening of labor-market conditions），但還需要持續(xù)。鮑威爾表示就業(yè)市場過去幾個(gè)月還是維持非常強(qiáng)勁態(tài)勢(shì)。同時(shí)，鮑威爾也維持認(rèn)為存在通脹回落但不至于深度增長下滑的“軟著陸”路徑[3]。</p> <p>考慮到：</p> <p>1）美國信用收縮效果或?qū)⒃谌径燃铀亠@現(xiàn)（對(duì)應(yīng)工商貸款同比轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)、消費(fèi)貸增速放緩），成為壓制需求的主要?jiǎng)恿Γ~儲(chǔ)蓄緩慢釋放（預(yù)計(jì)2024年一二季度釋放完畢）將防止需求“斷崖”，消費(fèi)需求仍有韌性；</p> <p>2）低收入人群“入不敷出”和自主雇傭驟減倒逼下，供給增長或可以使得就業(yè)缺口迅速收斂并壓制工資，核心和整體CPI三季度或靠近3%（分別為3%和3.5%）且年底都能達(dá)到3%，推高失業(yè)率年底逼近5%，我們對(duì)今年下半年的基準(zhǔn)假設(shè)是通脹大部分解決但增長不明顯衰退的“軟著陸”。<strong>節(jié)奏上，三季度或以通脹回落和加息停止主導(dǎo)，增長回落不顯著；四季度以增長下行主導(dǎo)，通脹停止下行，倒逼明年降息預(yù)期。</strong></p> <p><strong>三、資產(chǎn)影響：短期利率或維持高位；三季度后路徑或更為明確；三季度主線通脹降、四季度增長弱</strong></p> <p>綜合來看，此次會(huì)議基調(diào)整體偏鷹，強(qiáng)化了利率在高位停留更久（high for longer）的預(yù)期，因此在7月加息預(yù)期無法打消且在還有更多一次加息的指引下，<strong>利率短期可能維持在3.8%附近（反應(yīng)7月還有一次加息的預(yù)期，但并沒有計(jì)入兩次加息）。</strong>這有助于維持金融條件處于偏緊區(qū)域，也對(duì)黃金和股市高估值部分形成一定壓制。</p> <p>往前看，三季度后宏觀和政策路徑可能更為明確。根據(jù)我們目前的預(yù)測(cè)，三季度宏觀主線是通脹快速回落但增長還有韌性，加息逐步停止；進(jìn)入四季度則轉(zhuǎn)為增長壓力變大，通脹反而可能小幅翹尾，因此四季度壓力相對(duì)更大，直到倒逼降息預(yù)期明確。整體配置上，我們維持長債與黃金>股票>大宗商品排序。股票繼續(xù)重結(jié)構(gòu)“啞鈴”，成長>高分紅>周期/價(jià)值。具體來看：</p> <p><strong>?</strong> <strong>美債：短期維持在3.8%附近，年末衰退和寬松預(yù)期升溫后或中樞下移。</strong>結(jié)合3m10s利差倒掛程度（60年代以來3m10s利差平均倒掛~150bp），10年美債利率短期內(nèi)合理水平或在3.5~3.8%。往后看，考慮到債務(wù)上限解決后財(cái)政部需要新發(fā)債以補(bǔ)充TGA賬戶，短期內(nèi)債券供給的增加或給美債利率提供上行動(dòng)能。進(jìn)入四季度，待衰退降息預(yù)期明確后，基于我們的10年期美債利率模型測(cè)算，美債利率或在實(shí)際利率的帶動(dòng)下進(jìn)入下行中樞。</p> <p>圖表13：結(jié)合3m10s利差倒掛程度，10年美債利率短期內(nèi)合理水平或在3.5~3.8%</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/2904760309c1bd56f37bfc472203b3f0.jpg" style="width: 758px; height: 448px;" /></p> <p>圖表14：結(jié)合我們對(duì)下半年通脹、政策和其他經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的判斷，待衰退和降息預(yù)期明確后，美債利率中樞或?qū)⑾乱?/p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/74633165daee2e6cab807b35fe77b1fd.jpg" style="width: 743px; height: 461px;" /></p> <p><strong>?</strong> <strong>美股：分子仍有壓力但更多體現(xiàn)在價(jià)值周期部分，標(biāo)普500中樞3,900~4000。</strong>基準(zhǔn)情形下，美國下半年增長壓力會(huì)逐步增加，甚至不排除走向溫和衰退。當(dāng)前過高的估值、過低的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)意味著后續(xù)增長壓力下可能面臨擾動(dòng)，但不至于趨勢(shì)性逆轉(zhuǎn)。我們預(yù)計(jì)后續(xù)道瓊斯和標(biāo)普500價(jià)值部分將承受盈利下調(diào)壓力，靜態(tài)測(cè)算標(biāo)普500 中樞3,900附近，對(duì)應(yīng)估值收縮 6~9%，疊加盈利同時(shí)下修5%，但現(xiàn)實(shí)中路徑會(huì)有差異，且結(jié)構(gòu)上納指已經(jīng)下調(diào)充分。</p> <p>圖表15：成長風(fēng)格的納斯達(dá)克已先于標(biāo)普500半年下調(diào)盈利，較2022年高點(diǎn)已回落23%</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（數(shù)據(jù)截至2023年6月14日）" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/9adab5f3908c06a730cd43bbb1d756b0.jpg" style="width: 747px; height: 453px;" /></p> <p>圖表16：靜態(tài)測(cè)算標(biāo)普500中樞3900附近，較當(dāng)前低10%，對(duì)應(yīng)估值收縮6~9%，疊加盈利同時(shí)下修5%</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部（數(shù)據(jù)截至2023年6月14日）" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/1974afaeef38136350a93cf267610476.jpg" style="width: 758px; height: 430px;" /></p> <p><strong>?</strong> <strong>美元：短期窄幅震蕩，趨勢(shì)拐點(diǎn)要待中國增長修復(fù)。</strong>近期美元在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)超預(yù)期、美債利率上升等因素下持續(xù)走強(qiáng)，也符合我們之前的提示和判斷。往后看，根據(jù)我們的美元指數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)模型測(cè)算，美元指數(shù)短期上難言見頂。支撐位 100，阻力位為105，趨勢(shì)性拐點(diǎn)仍有待中國增長修復(fù)。</p> <p>圖表17：美元支撐位100、阻力位105；趨勢(shì)拐點(diǎn)要待下半年中國增長</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/313274685dd1328f9f16b96d442c2dba.jpg" style="width: 745px; height: 469px;" /></p> <p><strong>?</strong> <strong>黃金避險(xiǎn)和降息預(yù)期部分得到修正，預(yù)期計(jì)入偏多，下一波催化劑等待衰退和降息預(yù)期。</strong>短期看，黃金短期吸引力下降，四季度可能是更好的配置階段。我們測(cè)算，按照 1%左右實(shí)際利率和美元100~105 區(qū)間判斷，黃金中樞價(jià)格可能在1900 美元/盎司左右，當(dāng)前1950 美元/盎司仍有下調(diào)空間。往后看，黃金下一波漲幅主要等待衰退和降息預(yù)期催化，四季度可能是更好的配置階段。不過，降息預(yù)期兌現(xiàn)后，成長股或?qū)⒃俣瘸蔀橘Y產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)主導(dǎo)。</p> <p>圖表18：避險(xiǎn)和降息預(yù)期部分得到修正，下一個(gè)催化劑等待衰退和降息預(yù)期</p> <p align="center"><img alt="資料來源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2023/06/f4068e3a8b9160c2f7ef49e1a2f0936b.jpg" style="width: 747px; height: 462px;" /></p> <p>[1]https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20230614a1.pdf</p> <p>[2]https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20230614.htm</p> <p>[3]https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20230614.htm</p> <p>劉剛為中金公司研究部策略分析師、董事總經(jīng)理</p> </div><div class="sl2fowu" id="jb_report">舉報(bào)</div> <div id="j5x7rkj" class="person person-1 f-cb"><h4>文章作者</h4><ul> <a href="/author/100002460.html"><li id="8ehhxyp" class="dt-ych type1"><span id="navig3k" class="avatar"><img src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/editors/23589de172448aaf174995630ac4417d.jpg" 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