經(jīng)濟(jì)開啟正?；?/title><link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/aliplayer/aliplayer-min_2.25.1.css"><link rel="stylesheet" href="/appassets/newsbody.css"><link href="/css/news.css?31951cc4e04533045a9d" rel="stylesheet"><meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> <script>var V_PATH="/";window.onerror=function(){ return true; };</script> </head><body> <h1><a href="http://baxikafei.com/">亚洲中文字乱码免费播放,精品国产日韩专区欧美第一页,亚洲中文有码字幕青青,亚洲综合另类专区在线</a></h1> <div style="position:fixed;left:-9000px;top:-9000px;"><strong id="rlpr9"><dl id="rlpr9"></dl></strong><var id="rlpr9"><legend id="rlpr9"><form id="rlpr9"><menuitem id="rlpr9"></menuitem></form></legend></var><output id="rlpr9"></output><big id="rlpr9"><strong id="rlpr9"><rp id="rlpr9"><meter id="rlpr9"></meter></rp></strong></big><form id="rlpr9"><address id="rlpr9"></address></form><video id="rlpr9"><span id="rlpr9"><label id="rlpr9"><strong 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class="li-1" onclick="shareWX();">微信</li><li id="0uigyaa" class="li-2" onclick="shareTo('weibo');">微博</li><li id="k440goq" class="li-3" onclick="shareTo('qq');">QQ</li></ul></div></div><div id="q00cua0" class="m-layer" id="shareWXPop"><table><tbody><tr><td><div id="wguqgmm" class="lywrap"><div id="40qoek0" class="lytt"><h2 class="u-tt">分享到微信</h2><span id="u0qicgg" class="lyclose" onclick="CloseThisLayer(this);"></span></div><div id="maicqsq" class="m-modifyhead" style="padding-top: 0"><img class="m-qrcode" width="180" height="180"><p style="text-align: left; width: 90%; margin: 16px auto;">打開微信，點(diǎn)擊底部的“發(fā)現(xiàn)”，<br>使用“掃一掃”即可將網(wǎng)頁分享至朋友圈。</p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div id="aky0ou4" class="title f-pr"><h1>經(jīng)濟(jì)開啟正常化之路</h1><p class="f-cb"> <em class="f-fl">2022-11-17 10:59:54</em><a class="hashot f-fr"><img src="data:image/png;base64,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"><sup id="newshotnum" style="display: none;"></sup></a> </p><p class="names">作者：徐高責(zé)編：蔡嘉誠</p><div id="im44mq0" class="m-smallshare"></div></div> <div id="0iuqiom" class="intro"> 對投資者來說，現(xiàn)在雖然可以比幾個(gè)月前樂觀些了，但仍然需要審慎觀察形勢變化。 </div> <div id="4w40swu" class="m-txt"><div class="k4cy4wy" id="multi-text" class="f-cb"><p><strong>剛出爐的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)在10月份仍然低迷，繼續(xù)表現(xiàn)出偏離過去10年規(guī)律的諸多反?，F(xiàn)象。但在這背后，近期宏觀政策的調(diào)整已經(jīng)開啟了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的正常化之路。</strong>盡管這條正?；番F(xiàn)在看上去還很崎嶇，但經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的方向終究還是改變了——這是投資者近期最該關(guān)注的東西。</p> <p>在2022年9月19日發(fā)表的《更需關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)中的反常之處》一文中，筆者列舉了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)今年表現(xiàn)出的諸多反常之處。它們包括：異常偏低的進(jìn)口、弱得反常的終端需求、少見的主動(dòng)降庫存、反常衰弱的地產(chǎn)行業(yè)、反常的貨幣政策應(yīng)對。這些反?，F(xiàn)象很大程度上是地產(chǎn)融資緊縮政策的結(jié)果。在今年10月的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中，地產(chǎn)融資緊縮的狀況沒有改觀，隨之而來的反?，F(xiàn)象仍繼續(xù)存在。</p> <p><strong>10月經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中，地產(chǎn)行業(yè)和非地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的融資分化加劇。</strong>在這個(gè)月，地產(chǎn)投資到位資金同比負(fù)增長27%，而地產(chǎn)之外其他行業(yè)的投資到位資金則同比正增長17%。二者的增速差拉大到了44個(gè)百分點(diǎn)——地產(chǎn)行業(yè)面臨的融資形勢仍然嚴(yán)峻。（圖表 1）</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2022/11/02e40b2ab2f743916cfc5b43742bde27.jpg" style="width: 791px; height: 687px;" /></p> <p><strong>直到今年10月，地產(chǎn)行業(yè)因融資緊縮而形成的惡性循環(huán)仍未被打破。</strong>在2022年5月18日發(fā)表的《疫情之外，地產(chǎn)是另一個(gè)關(guān)鍵》一文中，筆者曾論述過：“如果不能化解地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的系統(tǒng)性信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，金融機(jī)構(gòu)和購房者對開發(fā)商的信心不能重建，地產(chǎn)行業(yè)就很難回歸正常狀態(tài)，反倒可能在惡性循環(huán)中越陷越深。”這是為什么近幾個(gè)月貨幣政策已經(jīng)很寬松，利率已經(jīng)處于低位，地產(chǎn)行業(yè)卻沒能復(fù)蘇的主要原因。在10月數(shù)據(jù)中，房屋按揭貸款與國債利率走勢的背離繼續(xù)存在，表明行業(yè)內(nèi)的惡性循環(huán)尚未打破，行業(yè)還未恢復(fù)正常。（圖表 2）</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2022/11/6caeeb66e9d542efa99c4d43f917522c.jpg" style="width: 783px; height: 703px;" /></p> <p><strong>受地產(chǎn)行業(yè)拖累，再加上出口下滑，今年10月我國經(jīng)濟(jì)整體低迷。</strong>季節(jié)調(diào)整之后，10月我國出口金額、固定資產(chǎn)投資金額和社會消費(fèi)品零售總額都小幅低于上月，僅工業(yè)增加值與上月持平。而這四個(gè)重要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的絕對水平均低于今年1季度，表明我國經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)尚未恢復(fù)到今年年初的水平。（圖表 3）</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2022/11/d9acbc607a216a29bf343a3ffc8ed2d0.jpg" style="width: 790px; height: 731px;" /></p> <p>在2022年9月19日發(fā)表的《更需關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)中的反常之處》一文中，筆者還寫道：“當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行明顯偏離過去十多年的運(yùn)行規(guī)律……如果過去的經(jīng)驗(yàn)不再成立，經(jīng)濟(jì)前景就難以預(yù)料，經(jīng)濟(jì)向好的預(yù)期就很難形成——這是當(dāng)前各經(jīng)濟(jì)主體‘預(yù)期偏弱’的核心原因。”那時(shí)的筆者雖然也有些“預(yù)期偏弱”，仍然對宏觀政策有期待。在那篇文章中的結(jié)尾部分，筆者寫道：“相信在實(shí)事求是的路線之下，宏觀政策最終能找到適合經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際的方向和發(fā)力點(diǎn)，進(jìn)而把國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定下來。但要把這種信心變成現(xiàn)實(shí)，還有待宏觀政策的恰當(dāng)施行。在那之前，市場將繼續(xù)處在觀望之中。”</p> <p><strong>兩個(gè)月過去了，盡管國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然沿慣性運(yùn)行在整體偏弱、反?，F(xiàn)象不少的軌道上，但宏觀政策已經(jīng)有了積極變化，從而給人更強(qiáng)信心。</strong></p> <p><strong>11月4日，劉鶴副總理在《人民日報(bào)》上發(fā)表了題為《把實(shí)施擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需戰(zhàn)略同深化供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革有機(jī)結(jié)合起來》的重要文章</strong>（簡稱《有機(jī)結(jié)合》）。劉副總理可以說是供給側(cè)改革的重要設(shè)計(jì)者，對包括地產(chǎn)業(yè)在內(nèi)的各行業(yè)融資政策有很高話語權(quán)。在《有機(jī)結(jié)合》這篇長文中，劉副總理闡述了“擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需”與“深化供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革”的辯證關(guān)系。文中，劉副總理說：“在一個(gè)較長的歷史時(shí)期內(nèi)，保持宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定和持續(xù)增長，對于全面建設(shè)社會主義現(xiàn)代化國家具有重要基礎(chǔ)性作用。”相比劉副總理之前的各種表態(tài)，文中的這類表述傳遞出了“穩(wěn)增長”的更強(qiáng)決心。而將擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需與供給側(cè)改革并列，也意味著擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需政策不再是短期權(quán)益之計(jì)，而已變成長期的宏觀政策導(dǎo)向。</p> <p>另據(jù)媒體報(bào)道，<strong>人民銀行和銀保監(jiān)會于11月11日聯(lián)合下發(fā)了《關(guān)于做好當(dāng)前金融支持房地產(chǎn)市場平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展工作的通知》（以下簡稱《通知》），推出了16條措施來支持房地產(chǎn)市場平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展</strong>?！锻ㄖ分饕獌?nèi)容有穩(wěn)定房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款、支持個(gè)人住房貸款、穩(wěn)定建筑企業(yè)信貸投放、通過各種融資方式來維護(hù)開發(fā)商和建筑企業(yè)的資金鏈等。</p> <p><strong>無論是劉副總理的文章，還是人民銀行和銀保監(jiān)會推出的16條舉措，都是市場等待許久的政策調(diào)整之明確信號。這些信號表明，政策已開始著手解決地產(chǎn)融資緊縮這個(gè)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的主要矛盾。</strong>只要找準(zhǔn)了主要矛盾，用對了政策，就可以有效改善經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢。</p> <p>當(dāng)然，現(xiàn)在還不能太樂觀。<strong>近期的政策信號只是開啟了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)回歸正?；牡缆?。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在這條路上能走多快，最終是否能走通，取決于后續(xù)政策的進(jìn)一步精準(zhǔn)調(diào)控。</strong></p> <p>以穩(wěn)定地產(chǎn)市場的《通知》為例?！锻ㄖ返恼w思路是“保地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目”而不是“保地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商”?！锻ㄖ返牡谝粭l明確說：“金融機(jī)構(gòu)要合理區(qū)分項(xiàng)目子公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與集團(tuán)控股公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，在保證債權(quán)安全、資金封閉運(yùn)作的前提下，按照市場化原則滿足房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目合理融資需求。”注意，這里要滿足的是“房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目合理融資需求”，而不是“房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商合理融資需求”。這樣的舉措是否能化解地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，打消銀行放貸和購房者買房時(shí)的疑慮，從而打破地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的惡性循環(huán)，現(xiàn)在還難下定論。此外，地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商在經(jīng)歷了長時(shí)間的政策打壓之后，其經(jīng)營信心可能已大受打擊。就算融資能恢復(fù)，開發(fā)商還有多少心氣來做地產(chǎn)開發(fā)，也需要再觀察。</p> <p>因此，<strong>目前只能說中國經(jīng)濟(jì)從反常狀況向常態(tài)回歸的路徑已經(jīng)開啟，但中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在這條正?；飞夏茏叨嗫欤酥吝@條路徑終點(diǎn)究竟是過去我們熟悉的“常態(tài)”，還是一個(gè)“新的常態(tài)”，現(xiàn)在還很難講。對投資者來說，現(xiàn)在雖然可以比幾個(gè)月前樂觀些了，但仍然需要審慎觀察形勢變化。</strong></p> <p><strong>（作者為中銀國際證券總裁助理、首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家）</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2022/11/81b5d3c1e78b3af443e7c71faceca681.jpg" /></p> </div><div class="8c0sqso" id="jb_report">舉報(bào)</div> <div id="ooeysso" class="person person-1 f-cb"><h4>文章作者</h4><ul> <a href="/author/625.html"><li id="qu40im4" class="dt-ych type1"><span id="suke04o" class="avatar"><img src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/editors/f2e6c48361b0fa43b725b42ea262fab0.jpg" onerror="imgError(this,7)"></span><p>徐高</p></li></a> </ul></div> </div></div> <div id="yy0mce0" class="m-ad4 dfb-ad" data-position="middleBanner1"></div> <div id="wyigw0a" class="m-ad4 dfb-ad" data-position="middleBanner2"></div><div id="04s4egg" class="m-content f-mb20"> <div id="ggsmgik" 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