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src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAwAAAAQCAYAAAAiYZ4HAAAACXBIWXMAAAsTAAALEwEAmpwYAAAKTWlDQ1BQaG90b3Nob3AgSUNDIHByb2ZpbGUAAHjanVN3WJP3Fj7f92UPVkLY8LGXbIEAIiOsCMgQWaIQkgBhhBASQMWFiApWFBURnEhVxILVCkidiOKgKLhnQYqIWotVXDjuH9yntX167+3t+9f7vOec5/zOec8PgBESJpHmomoAOVKFPDrYH49PSMTJvYACFUjgBCAQ5svCZwXFAADwA3l4fnSwP/wBr28AAgBw1S4kEsfh/4O6UCZXACCRAOAiEucLAZBSAMguVMgUAMgYALBTs2QKAJQAAGx5fEIiAKoNAOz0ST4FANipk9wXANiiHKkIAI0BAJkoRyQCQLsAYFWBUiwCwMIAoKxAIi4EwK4BgFm2MkcCgL0FAHaOWJAPQGAAgJlCLMwAIDgCAEMeE80DIEwDoDDSv+CpX3CFuEgBAMDLlc2XS9IzFLiV0Bp38vDg4iHiwmyxQmEXKRBmCeQinJebIxNI5wNMzgwAABr50cH+OD+Q5+bk4eZm52zv9MWi/mvwbyI+IfHf/ryMAgQAEE7P79pf5eXWA3DHAbB1v2upWwDaVgBo3/ldM9sJoFoK0Hr5i3k4/EAenqFQyDwdHAoLC+0lYqG9MOOLPv8z4W/gi372/EAe/tt68ABxmkCZrcCjg/1xYW52rlKO58sEQjFu9+cj/seFf/2OKdHiNLFcLBWK8ViJuFAiTcd5uVKRRCHJleIS6X8y8R+W/QmTdw0ArIZPwE62B7XLbMB+7gECiw5Y0nYAQH7zLYwaC5EAEGc0Mnn3AACTv/mPQCsBAM2XpOMAALzoGFyolBdMxggAAESggSqwQQcMwRSswA6cwR28wBcCYQZEQAwkwDwQQgbkgBwKoRiWQRlUwDrYBLWwAxqgEZrhELTBMTgN5+ASXIHrcBcGYBiewhi8hgkEQcgIE2EhOogRYo7YIs4IF5mOBCJhSDSSgKQg6YgUUSLFyHKkAqlCapFdSCPyLXIUOY1cQPqQ28ggMor8irxHMZSBslED1AJ1QLmoHxqKxqBz0XQ0D12AlqJr0Rq0Hj2AtqKn0UvodXQAfYqOY4DRMQ5mjNlhXIyHRWCJWBomxxZj5Vg1Vo81Yx1YN3YVG8CeYe8IJAKLgBPsCF6EEMJsgpCQR1hMWEOoJewjtBK6CFcJg4Qxwicik6hPtCV6EvnEeGI6sZBYRqwm7iEeIZ4lXicOE1+TSCQOyZLkTgohJZAySQtJa0jbSC2kU6Q+0hBpnEwm65Btyd7kCLKArCCXkbeQD5BPkvvJw+S3FDrFiOJMCaIkUqSUEko1ZT/lBKWfMkKZoKpRzame1AiqiDqfWkltoHZQL1OHqRM0dZolzZsWQ8ukLaPV0JppZ2n3aC/pdLoJ3YMeRZfQl9Jr6Afp5+mD9HcMDYYNg8dIYigZaxl7GacYtxkvmUymBdOXmchUMNcyG5lnmA+Yb1VYKvYqfBWRyhKVOpVWlX6V56pUVXNVP9V5qgtUq1UPq15WfaZGVbNQ46kJ1Bar1akdVbupNq7OUndSj1DPUV+jvl/9gvpjDbKGhUaghkijVGO3xhmNIRbGMmXxWELWclYD6yxrmE1iW7L57Ex2Bfsbdi97TFNDc6pmrGaRZp3mcc0BDsax4PA52ZxKziHODc57LQMtPy2x1mqtZq1+rTfaetq+2mLtcu0W7eva73VwnUCdLJ31Om0693UJuja6UbqFutt1z+o+02PreekJ9cr1Dund0Uf1bfSj9Rfq79bv0R83MDQINpAZbDE4Y/DMkGPoa5hpuNHwhOGoEctoupHEaKPRSaMnuCbuh2fjNXgXPmasbxxirDTeZdxrPGFiaTLbpMSkxeS+Kc2Ua5pmutG003TMzMgs3KzYrMnsjjnVnGueYb7ZvNv8jYWlRZzFSos2i8eW2pZ8ywWWTZb3rJhWPlZ5VvVW16xJ1lzrLOtt1ldsUBtXmwybOpvLtqitm63Edptt3xTiFI8p0in1U27aMez87ArsmuwG7Tn2YfYl9m32zx3MHBId1jt0O3xydHXMdmxwvOuk4TTDqcSpw+lXZxtnoXOd8zUXpkuQyxKXdpcXU22niqdun3rLleUa7rrStdP1o5u7m9yt2W3U3cw9xX2r+00umxvJXcM970H08PdY4nHM452nm6fC85DnL152Xlle+70eT7OcJp7WMG3I28Rb4L3Le2A6Pj1l+s7pAz7GPgKfep+Hvqa+It89viN+1n6Zfgf8nvs7+sv9j/i/4XnyFvFOBWABwQHlAb2BGoGzA2sDHwSZBKUHNQWNBbsGLww+FUIMCQ1ZH3KTb8AX8hv5YzPcZyya0RXKCJ0VWhv6MMwmTB7WEY6GzwjfEH5vpvlM6cy2CIjgR2yIuB9pGZkX+X0UKSoyqi7qUbRTdHF09yzWrORZ+2e9jvGPqYy5O9tqtnJ2Z6xqbFJsY+ybuIC4qriBeIf4RfGXEnQTJAntieTE2MQ9ieNzAudsmjOc5JpUlnRjruXcorkX5unOy553PFk1WZB8OIWYEpeyP+WDIEJQLxhP5aduTR0T8oSbhU9FvqKNolGxt7hKPJLmnVaV9jjdO31D+miGT0Z1xjMJT1IreZEZkrkj801WRNberM/ZcdktOZSclJyjUg1plrQr1zC3KLdPZisrkw3keeZtyhuTh8r35CP5c/PbFWyFTNGjtFKuUA4WTC+oK3hbGFt4uEi9SFrUM99m/ur5IwuCFny9kLBQuLCz2Lh4WfHgIr9FuxYji1MXdy4xXVK6ZHhp8NJ9y2jLspb9UOJYUlXyannc8o5Sg9KlpUMrglc0lamUycturvRauWMVYZVkVe9ql9VbVn8qF5VfrHCsqK74sEa45uJXTl/VfPV5bdra3kq3yu3rSOuk626s91m/r0q9akHV0IbwDa0b8Y3lG19tSt50oXpq9Y7NtM3KzQM1YTXtW8y2rNvyoTaj9nqdf13LVv2tq7e+2Sba1r/dd3vzDoMdFTve75TsvLUreFdrvUV99W7S7oLdjxpiG7q/5n7duEd3T8Wej3ulewf2Re/ranRvbNyvv7+yCW1SNo0eSDpw5ZuAb9qb7Zp3tXBaKg7CQeXBJ9+mfHvjUOihzsPcw83fmX+39QjrSHkr0jq/dawto22gPaG97+iMo50dXh1Hvrf/fu8x42N1xzWPV56gnSg98fnkgpPjp2Snnp1OPz3Umdx590z8mWtdUV29Z0PPnj8XdO5Mt1/3yfPe549d8Lxw9CL3Ytslt0utPa49R35w/eFIr1tv62X3y+1XPK509E3rO9Hv03/6asDVc9f41y5dn3m978bsG7duJt0cuCW69fh29u0XdwruTNxdeo94r/y+2v3qB/oP6n+0/rFlwG3g+GDAYM/DWQ/vDgmHnv6U/9OH4dJHzEfVI0YjjY+dHx8bDRq98mTOk+GnsqcTz8p+Vv9563Or59/94vtLz1j82PAL+YvPv655qfNy76uprzrHI8cfvM55PfGm/K3O233vuO+638e9H5ko/ED+UPPR+mPHp9BP9z7nfP78L/eE8/sl0p8zAAAAIGNIUk0AAHolAACAgwAA+f8AAIDpAAB1MAAA6mAAADqYAAAXb5JfxUYAAAELSURBVHjahJIxTsNAEEUfVnrcrTRVcoKYaltzApwThBsknCBwAh8hcAPnBEA5VcwNTLPSVPgINGMkojV8aZudmf+/Zj5kIGqVqH2JWn1ZKzLNS+CVGRSZvyPwDPROUIrafipeZdjPwApogU8vbVMMq5xCA3QphhF4AXb+SlGrcgNr4AMgxfDm1kagA+qfAVF7FLUSWE7efegBuAVOrsTCfR+A69xWUgwDMIhaK2pN4b574H6SncETcCiA0iVvgI17z6EDqsWl9Bx9imEUNQpvWvMPRK0BhmJa2bTnP7Dz24Co7T1s1Qz7UdTOv6LheWn9WCc/WA1s3fYmxTDmstQAd/7VA+8phm7q+R4A0vBklFq9ofwAAAAASUVORK5CYII="><sup id="newshotnum" style="display: none;"></sup></a> <i id="audioPlayerbox" style="display: none;"></i> <a class="hasspeech f-fr" onclick="listenAudio('https://audiocdn.yicai.com/audio/de7dab60-b94a-4284-be40-98cc2fcf90d1_xf.mp3')">聽新聞</a> </p><p class="names">作者：平安首經(jīng)團隊責編：任紹敏</p><div id="ttj5nrt" class="m-smallshare"></div></div> <div id="5ldvp1b" class="intro"> 鮑威爾講話多次提及三個“正常化”——就業(yè)市場正?；?、經(jīng)濟正常化以及貨幣政策正?；?。 </div> <div id="lp9vl5t" class="m-txt"><div class="txnhbdd" id="multi-text" class="f-cb"><p>7月美聯(lián)儲議息會議暫不降息，會議聲明出現(xiàn)多處調(diào)整，尤其強調(diào)委員會<strong>從側(cè)重通脹風險切換至關(guān)注就業(yè)和通脹雙向風險</strong>。美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾的講話透露出9月降息的可能性，而對于就業(yè)市場的評價比市場更加樂觀。</p> <p>我們認為，<strong>理解降息的邏輯，比判斷降息的時點更加重要。</strong>近期市場對于降息隱含的“衰退”信號較為敏感，但我們認為，更應從貨幣政策“正?；?rdquo;的角度去理解本輪降息。正如<strong>鮑威爾講話多次提及三個“正?；?rdquo;——就業(yè)市場正?；?、經(jīng)濟正?；约柏泿耪哒；?。</strong>繼而，市場可能會從“衰退交易”逐步過渡到“軟著陸交易”，對于大幅、快速降息的押注可能更加克制，<strong>美債利率和美元匯率有望維持韌性，美股調(diào)整有望告一段落。</strong></p> <p><strong>會議聲明：從側(cè)重通脹到兼顧雙目標</strong></p> <p>美聯(lián)儲7月議息會議聲明，維持聯(lián)邦基金利率為5.25%~5.5%目標區(qū)間，符合市場預期。同時，美聯(lián)儲維持其他政策利率：1）將存款準備金利率維持在5.4%；2）將隔夜回購利率維持在5.5%；3）將隔夜逆回購利率維持在5.3%；4）將一級信貸利率維持在5.5%?？s表方面，美聯(lián)儲將每月被動縮減250億美元國債和350億美元MBS。</p> <p>經(jīng)濟和政策描述部分，7月會議聲明有多處調(diào)整，從原來側(cè)重通脹風險，到兼顧通脹和就業(yè)雙目標。具體來看：</p> <p><strong>1<span id="bdtnjpn" class="spro yb ser5" data-height="">）</span>就業(yè)市場描述上，</strong>將“就業(yè)增長保持強勁（remained strong）”改為“有所放緩（have moderated）”；將“失業(yè)率保持在較低水平”調(diào)整為“失業(yè)率有所上升（moved up）但仍然保持在較低水平”。</p> <p><strong>2<span id="xb55hpp" class="spro yb ser7" data-height="">）</span>在通脹描述上，</strong>將“通脹在過去一年有所緩解但仍然較高（elevated）”調(diào)整為“通脹在過去一年有所緩解但仍然有些高（somewhat elevated）”。</p> <p><strong>3<span id="9r5bvb9" class="spro yb ser8" data-height="">）</span>通脹進展方面，</strong>將“向委員會2%的通脹目標取得了適度的（modest）進一步進展”調(diào)整為“向委員會2%的通脹目標取得了一些（some）進一步進展”。</p> <p><strong>4<span id="5dljf9p" class="spro yb ser6" data-height="">）</span>風險平衡方面，</strong>將“實現(xiàn)就業(yè)和通脹目標的風險已經(jīng)向更好的平衡方向發(fā)展（have moved toward better balance）”調(diào)整為“實現(xiàn)就業(yè)和通脹目標的風險繼續(xù)向更好的平衡方向發(fā)展（continue to move into better balance）”。同時，將“委員會繼續(xù)高度關(guān)注通脹風險”調(diào)整為“委員會高度關(guān)注雙目標下的雙向風險（the risks to both sides of its dual mandate）”。</p> <p><strong>鮑威爾講話：不拒談降息，不擔憂就業(yè)</strong></p> <p>首先，鮑威爾對降息的態(tài)度基本符合預期，雖然極力避免提前<span id="ddpldhh" class="spro yb ser2" data-height="">做出</span>決策，但字里行間透露了即將降息的可能性。他明確表示9月會議可能會討論降息，且目前對于降息需要的“信心”已經(jīng)增加了。</p> <p>其次，他對就業(yè)市場的評價似乎比市場感受更加樂觀，多次強調(diào)就業(yè)市場邁向“正常化”，弱化了失業(yè)率較快上升的指示意義，更加強調(diào)要綜合看全部數(shù)據(jù)。</p> <p>最后，關(guān)于如何平衡雙向風險，鮑威爾比較謙虛地表示未來客觀上存在不確定性，而美聯(lián)儲只能在此過程中不斷平衡風險；他也強調(diào)，目前不只關(guān)注通脹，而關(guān)注雙向風險，且美聯(lián)儲會對意外情況及時反應。</p> <p><strong>會議聲明及鮑威爾講話后，市場感受偏鴿：</strong>10年美債收益率從會議前4.12%附近，下跌約9BP至4.03%。美元指數(shù)日內(nèi)下跌約0.4%至104.06附近。美股三大指數(shù)全日保持上漲，尾盤漲幅略有收窄，且成長好于價值，納指、標普500和道指分別收漲2.64%、1.58%和0.24%。黃金現(xiàn)價從2420美元/盎司附近上漲約1.6%至2447美元/盎司左右。</p> <p><strong>政策邏輯：三個“正?；?rdquo;</strong></p> <p>自7月11日美國CPI數(shù)據(jù)降溫以來，市場幾乎確定美聯(lián)儲將于9月首次降息、年內(nèi)降息2~3次。本次會議聲明以及鮑威爾講話，為9月降息也埋下了不少伏筆，市場與美聯(lián)儲的步伐整體上保持一致。</p> <p>如果說分歧，那么降息的邏輯，似乎比降息的時點更有爭議。</p> <p>近期市場“降息交易”的演繹，多少有些“衰退交易”的意味。盡管在“特朗普交易”擾動下，美元指數(shù)不弱、黃金價格波動，但其余<strong>大部分資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)仍能體現(xiàn)市場對美國經(jīng)濟的擔憂在上升，</strong>包括美股調(diào)整，美債偏強，原油和銅等與經(jīng)濟景氣相關(guān)的商品價格走弱等。<strong>市場擔心美聯(lián)儲即將降息是否暗示“經(jīng)濟不好”，又擔心會不會降息太晚以至于無力阻止可能的衰退發(fā)生。</strong></p> <p>但我們認為，本輪美聯(lián)儲降息的邏輯，更應從貨幣政策“正?；?rdquo;的角度去理解。</p> <p>去年年末，我們對今年美聯(lián)儲降息抱有期待，認為<strong>美聯(lián)儲可以選擇“預防式降息”</strong>，類似1989年、1995年和2019年等情形。盡管我們也認為美國中長期政策利率中樞可能需要上修，譬如從2.5%上修至3.5%左右，但相比目前5.25%~5.5%的政策利率而言，仍留有充足的“正?；?rdquo;空間。只不過，今年一季度美國通脹超預期反彈，延緩了降息的進程，但是美國經(jīng)濟和就業(yè)韌性大致符合預期，“預防式降息”的邏輯并未改變。</p> <p><strong>本次鮑威爾講話多次提及三個“正常化”——就業(yè)市場正?；?、經(jīng)濟正?；约柏泿耪哒；?/strong>旨在表達就業(yè)市場正邁向疫情前水平，美國經(jīng)濟整體強勁卻不過熱，雖然很多經(jīng)濟指標和現(xiàn)象與2019年疫情前有出入，但是大的趨勢仍是從某種“非正?；?rdquo;邁向“正常化”。在此過程中，貨幣政策自然也需要同步調(diào)整，邁向“正?；?rdquo;，即利率水平應該從目前的限制性水平逐步下降。</p> <p>至于美國經(jīng)濟超預期走弱的風險，當然不能排除。但正如鮑威爾所說，我們需要謙虛地看待經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)，在運用歷史經(jīng)驗和數(shù)學統(tǒng)計進行判斷時格外謹慎。僅從目前的數(shù)據(jù)看：超預期的二季度GDP、保持低位的失業(yè)率、不需要金融條件大幅收緊就能觀察到的通脹下降等，<strong>美國經(jīng)濟“軟著陸”仍然是我們的基準預期</strong>。</p> <p><strong>市場展望：邁向“軟著陸交易”，警惕“緊縮交易”</strong></p> <p>我們認為，<strong>近期市場可能會從“衰退交易”逐步過渡到“軟著陸交易”，</strong>二者均建立在美聯(lián)儲即將開啟降息的預期之上，但區(qū)別在于，市場對美國經(jīng)濟的判斷還有上修空間，而對于經(jīng)濟“意外降溫”的擔憂有望減退，繼而對于大幅、快速降息的押注可能更加克制。而再往后看，<strong>我們?nèi)匀惶崾久缆?lián)儲9月降息后，可能暫停降息的風險，</strong>屆時需警惕“緊縮交易”。</p> <p>具體展望未來一段時間的大類資產(chǎn)：</p> <p><strong>中長端美債收益率或不會過度下降，</strong>10年美債利率在目前接近4%的水平附近，有望維持窄幅波動或小幅反彈；</p> <p><strong>美股悲觀情緒有望緩解，</strong>尤其美股科技股的劇烈調(diào)整有望告一段落，美股板塊有望更加平衡，因“降息交易”“特朗普交易”等驅(qū)動的板塊切換有望消退；</p> <p><strong>美元指數(shù)保持一定韌性，</strong>盡管日本央行加息有望逐步促進日元反彈，但美國經(jīng)濟前景仍將對美元提供一定支撐，尤其是美元在與歐洲貨幣的較量中；</p> <p><strong>金價可能維持波動而非單邊上漲，</strong>一方面是基于美債利率和美元指數(shù)仍有韌性的假設(shè)；另一方面是對美國經(jīng)濟前景上修的過程中，原油、工業(yè)金屬等風險資產(chǎn)或有反彈空間，黃金的避險屬性可能受到一定壓制。</p> <p><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2024/08/13216f5512ad286c7c8edc0d3cb8cb01.jpg" style="width: 640px; height: 249px;" /></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2024/08/623d0fd0e41711f397298143d1b00ff5.jpg" style="width: 640px; height: 246px;" /></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2024/08/a6b16ac303c893578c394299c92db191.jpg" style="width: 640px; height: 317px;" /></p> <p><strong>第一財經(jīng)獲授權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)載自微信公眾號</strong><strong>“</strong><strong>鐘正生經(jīng)濟分析</strong><strong>”</strong><strong>。</strong></p> </div><div class="rt5br55" id="jb_report">舉報</div> <div id="pvfz9fn" class="person person-1 f-cb"><h4>文章作者</h4><ul> <a href="/author/100009609.html"><li id="djv5n5x" 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