胡偉?。好涝趺戳?/title><link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/aliplayer/aliplayer-min_2.25.1.css"><link rel="stylesheet" href="/appassets/newsbody.css"><link href="/css/news.css?31951cc4e04533045a9d" rel="stylesheet"><meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> <script>var V_PATH="/";window.onerror=function(){ return true; };</script> </head><body> <h1><a href="http://baxikafei.com/">亚洲中文字乱码免费播放,精品国产日韩专区欧美第一页,亚洲中文有码字幕青青,亚洲综合另类专区在线</a></h1> <div style="position:fixed;left:-9000px;top:-9000px;"><strong id="rlpr9"><dl id="rlpr9"></dl></strong><var id="rlpr9"><legend id="rlpr9"><form id="rlpr9"><menuitem id="rlpr9"></menuitem></form></legend></var><output id="rlpr9"></output><big id="rlpr9"><strong id="rlpr9"><rp id="rlpr9"><meter id="rlpr9"></meter></rp></strong></big><form id="rlpr9"><address id="rlpr9"></address></form><video id="rlpr9"><span id="rlpr9"><label id="rlpr9"><strong id="rlpr9"></strong></label></span></video><dl 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id="arzr0"></thead></u></acronym></fieldset><tfoot id="arzr0"><track id="arzr0"><s id="arzr0"><b id="arzr0"></b></s></track></tfoot><legend id="arzr0"></legend><strike id="arzr0"><center id="arzr0"><label id="arzr0"><center id="arzr0"></center></label></center></strike><pre id="arzr0"></pre><pre id="arzr0"></pre><progress id="arzr0"></progress><rp id="arzr0"></rp><nav id="arzr0"><thead id="arzr0"><strong id="arzr0"><div id="arzr0"></div></strong></thead></nav><tfoot id="arzr0"></tfoot><track id="arzr0"></track><center id="arzr0"><form id="arzr0"><legend id="arzr0"><ruby id="arzr0"></ruby></legend></form></center><optgroup id="arzr0"></optgroup></div> <div id="bshwwc0" class="g-hd" id="pcHeader"></div> <div id="hqeqli2" class="g-bd f-cb"><div id="iyepcbh" class="m-adtopbanner f-cb"><div id="zzyttxm" class="m-ad8 dfb-ad" data-position="topBanner"></div><div id="uub72z0" class="m-ad9 dfb-ad" data-position="topBannerRight"></div></div><div id="efgg77o" class="g-mn g-mn-w g-mn-mt1 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id="lw2oaui" class="title f-pr"><h1>胡偉俊：美元怎么了</h1><p class="f-cb"> <span id="plwcymw" class="f-fl">第一財經(jīng)</span> <em class="f-fl">2017-05-27 13:14:00</em><a class="hashot f-fr"><img src="data:image/png;base64,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"><sup id="newshotnum" style="display: none;"></sup></a> </p><p class="names">作者：胡偉俊責(zé)編：孫維維</p><div id="3qyvyxc" class="m-smallshare"></div></div> <div id="p72lwlj" class="intro"> 今年以來，美元走勢盡顯疲態(tài)，市場高估了特朗普對于財政政策的推動能力。 </div> <div id="sybylkk" class="m-txt"><div class="oez1vka" id="multi-text" class="f-cb"><p> </p> <p>今年以來，美元走勢盡顯疲態(tài)，已經(jīng)抹去了特朗普當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)以來的所有漲幅。是什么造成了美元的弱勢呢？</p> <p><strong>首先要問的是，是什么造成了美元之前的強勢。</strong>這個問題可以在很多層次上回答，比如說，一個層面可能是美聯(lián)儲今年加不加息、加幾次等。但在另一個更加深刻的層面，決定美元這種全球核心資產(chǎn)走勢的，不是美聯(lián)儲，而是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的大周期。原因在于，美聯(lián)儲加息并不是空穴來風(fēng)，它同樣受制于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的大周期。美元（以及油價）的走勢，是全球周期背后深層力量最直接的體現(xiàn)。而這種力量同時也左右了美聯(lián)儲加息的決定。所以美聯(lián)儲只是美元走勢的催化劑，而不是決定因素。</p> <p>進(jìn)入本世紀(jì)以來，全球資本流動大致經(jīng)歷了三個大的階段。首先是2003年到2008年的“全球不平衡”（Global Imbalances）時期，這段時間美國出現(xiàn)大幅貿(mào)易逆差，美元處于弱勢狀態(tài)。第二個階段，是2009年到2014年的“全球套息交易”（Global Carry Trade）時期。這段時間里，西方的主要央行都采取了異常寬松的貨幣政策，向金融體系內(nèi)部注入了大量的流動性，導(dǎo)致大量熱錢流入新興市場。第三個階段，從2014年中美聯(lián)儲開始暗示退出QE3開始，“全球套息交易”出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)，資金從新興市場回流發(fā)達(dá)國家。</p> <p>正是上述的逆轉(zhuǎn)，在之后一年多引發(fā)了一場小型的新興市場危機，美元指數(shù)從80暴漲到100，大宗商品價格暴跌，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)包括中國陷入通縮。這也是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)自2008年次貸危機，2010~2012年歐債危機之后所遭遇的第三波重創(chuàng)。這是美元在2016年之前走強的大背景。但是當(dāng)市場跟隨之前的慣性，在2016年初繼續(xù)看多美元的時候，兩個很簡單的道理被忽略了。首先，熱錢不是無窮無盡的。其次，經(jīng)濟(jì)是有周期的。</p> <p>以中國為例，外匯儲備在2014年中見頂并開始回落，但到了2016年2季度，企業(yè)償還外債已經(jīng)告一段落，而金融賬戶下的海外投資也重新轉(zhuǎn)為凈流入。換言之，熱錢外流已經(jīng)不是問題。這不僅是中國的現(xiàn)象，其他新興市場國家同樣如此。也許有人要問為什么去年下半年中國仍然有很大的資本外流，原因在于本國居民在人民幣貶值預(yù)期的影響下，增加海外資產(chǎn)的配置。所以人民幣貶值的背后，預(yù)期因素要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于基本面因素。</p> <p><strong>另一方面，經(jīng)濟(jì)很多時候像一根彈簧，向一個方向壓得太狠了就會反彈。</strong>中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在經(jīng)歷了2014~2015年的低迷之后，庫存被壓到了很低的位置，企業(yè)資本開支也被大大延后。于是到了2015年底市場最悲觀的時候，反彈的力量開始發(fā)生作用。以鐵礦石價格在2015年12月觸底為起點，開始了一輪像樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。而這也不是中國才有的現(xiàn)象。作為和美元并列的最重要的全球宏觀指標(biāo)，油價于2016年1月見底。而全球經(jīng)濟(jì)也在多年以來，第一次出現(xiàn)了像樣的反彈。例如日本經(jīng)濟(jì)從2016年1季度開始正增長，到今年1季度已經(jīng)持續(xù)了5個季度的正增長，是2006年以來最長的擴(kuò)張期。而歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)也2016年初開始，開始反彈并延續(xù)至今。資本也重新流入新興市場，導(dǎo)演了阿根廷、巴西和俄羅斯去年的一波逆襲。</p> <p>全球資本流動和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的反轉(zhuǎn)，直接導(dǎo)致了2016年初看多美元交易的失敗。經(jīng)此一役，許多全球宏觀對沖基金都遭到重創(chuàng)。有趣的是，雖然導(dǎo)致美元上行的資本流動以及周期性的因素已經(jīng)發(fā)生改變，美元上行周期已是強弩之末，但在去年下半年美元仍然走出一波小牛市，背后最主要推手來自事件性沖擊。首先是6月的英國脫歐，引發(fā)了歐元和英鎊的全線下跌，而兩者相加占美元指數(shù)的權(quán)重接近70%。另一個事件性影響是11月特朗普當(dāng)選美國總統(tǒng)，催生了押注高增長、高通脹，做多美元的“特朗普交易”。</p> <p>但是事件性沖擊的影響往往不能持久，最后基本面的因素仍會回到主導(dǎo)地位。所以筆者一直對強勢美元的看法表示懷疑，去年11月參加華爾街見聞年會的時候，便以“美元強勢不可持續(xù)”作為演講主題。這也關(guān)系到我們對人民幣的看法，因為人民幣匯率主要受到美元走勢和資本流動的影響，既然美元未必能持續(xù)走強，而且資本管制也相對有效，所以筆者也在去年年底的時候，撰文指出當(dāng)時市場對于人民幣的一致預(yù)期過于悲觀。</p> <p><strong>不妨重新看一下，為什么美元強勢不可持續(xù)。</strong></p> <p><strong>首先，美國沒有那么好，世界其他地方也沒有這么差。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇，不論是日本央行還是歐央行，最近都開始釋放退出量化寬松的信號。</strong>而美國1季度的GDP增速只有0.7%，是三年來的最低增速。雖然有一些一次性的因素影響，但也說明美國并非一枝獨秀。表現(xiàn)在資本市場上，今年以來，歐洲和新興市場的股市都跑贏了美股，而新興市場債券更是全球表現(xiàn)最佳的資產(chǎn)。最近港股和A股這么大反差，部分原因當(dāng)然是內(nèi)地資金的流入，但更重要的則是港股比A股更多地受到了全球市場的影響。</p> <p><strong>第二，從美國政策制定者的角度，并不希望強勢美元，而市場也知道這一點。</strong>一方面，在標(biāo)普500公司的海外收入已經(jīng)占到30%，強美元會影響到海外收入的美元價值，從而影響美國企業(yè)的利潤。另一方面，強美元會降低美國企業(yè)的出口競爭力，不僅會影響經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，而且會增加美國國內(nèi)的保護(hù)主義浪潮，而后者也會使其它國家采取競爭性貶值的時候感到投鼠忌器。</p> <p><strong>第三，美聯(lián)儲今年的確已經(jīng)加息，而且可能再加2次，但是驅(qū)動資金流動的，不是政策利率，而是經(jīng)過風(fēng)險調(diào)整的投資回報率。</strong>目前金融市場對風(fēng)險的擔(dān)憂并不高，所以資金更愿意去彈性更大的歐洲和新興市場。更重要的是，加息影響的是短端利率，而短端利率上升不一定能夠傳導(dǎo)到長端利率。原因在于，長端利率并不像短端利率一樣由政策決定，而更多地受到經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在增長率的影響。如果美國的潛在增長率，隨著老齡化和技術(shù)進(jìn)步放緩等原因而下降，那么即使聯(lián)儲加息，長端利率不會相應(yīng)上升，而只會出現(xiàn)更加平緩的收益率曲線。這種情況下，加息不一定會增加美元資產(chǎn)的吸引力。</p> <p><strong>第四，市場高估了特朗普對于財政政策的推動能力。</strong>在過去幾個月里，特朗普在兌現(xiàn)其競選承諾方面，要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于市場先前的預(yù)期，這也導(dǎo)致了美元匯率回到了特朗普當(dāng)選之前的水平。究其原因，首先，競選和施政從來是不一樣的。早在70年前，霍夫施塔特就在他的名著《美國政治傳統(tǒng)及其締造者》中寫到，“想成為總統(tǒng)，林肯有時必須得說的比他實際認(rèn)為的更激進(jìn)；想成為一個握有實權(quán)的總統(tǒng)，他必須得表現(xiàn)得比他所想的更保守。” 其次，特朗普確有其民意基礎(chǔ)，但熟悉政治史的人都知道，統(tǒng)治者要推行他心目中的理想政策，即使擁有民意還有最高權(quán)力也還是不夠的，因為他還需要取得整個文官體系和黨內(nèi)建制派的支持與合作。</p> <p>當(dāng)然，最近美元的弱勢，部分也是源于事件性的沖擊?；乜礆v史，不論是1973年的水門事件，還是1987年的伊朗門事件，當(dāng)事件逐步被市場消化之后，美元都出現(xiàn)一輪的反彈。但這種反彈并不同于美元上升周期，因為反彈之后仍然是區(qū)間震蕩。直到1980年和1995年，美元才分別開始了一輪新的上升周期。</p> <p><strong>總結(jié)來說，對于普通投資者而言，增加海外投資，如果是基于資產(chǎn)分散化的需求，當(dāng)然沒有問題。但如果基于匯率的考慮，認(rèn)為美元仍然處于長期上行的周期，那可能就需要考慮過去支持美元上行的因素是否真的長期存在。而對于政策制定者而言，美元的弱勢則提供了一個重啟匯率改革的窗口。</strong>事實上，過去幾年人民幣面對的壓力，很大程度上來自改革不夠而不是過度，比如人民幣長期對美元缺乏波動，容易形成單邊走勢，以及國內(nèi)居民海外資產(chǎn)配置過低等，這些問題的根本解決，都取決于匯率形成機制和資本賬戶開放等方面能否取得更多的進(jìn)展。（胡偉俊系麥格理集團(tuán)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、中國首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家論壇理事）</p> <p>第一財經(jīng)獲授權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)載自“首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家論壇”微信公眾號</p> </div><div class="rckrg6a" id="jb_report">舉報</div> <div id="nsjakut" class="person person-1 f-cb"><h4>文章作者</h4><ul> <a href="/author/1323.html"><li id="xyaynmf" class="dt-ych type1"><span id="yetkfoo" class="avatar"><img src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/editors/2e8cf340982803c20bf60b60a40cb935.jpg" onerror="imgError(this,7)"></span><p>胡偉俊</p></li></a> </ul></div> </div></div> <div id="sh1a7nk" class="m-ad4 dfb-ad" data-position="middleBanner1"></div> <div id="e2ovazd" class="m-ad4 dfb-ad" data-position="middleBanner2"></div><div id="7pxjihb" 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