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src="data:image/png;base64,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"><sup id="newshotnum" style="display: none;"></sup></a> <i id="audioPlayerbox" style="display: none;"></i> <a class="hasspeech f-fr" onclick="listenAudio('https://audiocdn.yicai.com/audio/7221c985-99d7-4397-abac-18d5513d8861_xf.mp3')">聽新聞</a> </p><p class="names">作者：樊志菁責(zé)編：葛唯爾</p><div id="8bwx7oa" class="m-smallshare"></div></div> <div id="0pnhhny" class="intro"> 新一輪降息潮或開啟。 </div> <div id="ty1km8t" class="m-txt"><div class="3b7q9s8" id="multi-text" class="f-cb"><p>在杰克遜霍爾央行年會上，越來越多增長乏力的跡象和就業(yè)市場出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成為了美聯(lián)儲發(fā)出政策轉(zhuǎn)向信號的原因、貨幣政策軌跡的變化。美聯(lián)儲的行動可能會推動更多央行的加入，而日本央行將繼續(xù)成為全球?yàn)閿?shù)不多的逆行者，不過經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的不確定性和此前套息交易帶來的波動讓進(jìn)一步緊縮或變得更加謹(jǐn)慎。</p><p style="text-align: center;" class="image-blot"><img src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/images/2024/08/091fb766ec8ca78e94a17b336440fd5e.jpg" alt="日本央行還會加息嗎（來源：新華社圖）"></p><p><strong>美聯(lián)儲或掀起新一輪降息潮</strong></p><p>上周美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾就美國經(jīng)濟(jì)前景發(fā)表了備受期待的演講，并發(fā)出迄今為止最明確的信息，即政策調(diào)整的時(shí)機(jī)已經(jīng)到來。會議發(fā)布的研究文件顯示，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能接近臨界點(diǎn)，職位空缺的持續(xù)下降將轉(zhuǎn)化為失業(yè)率的更快增長。</p><p>國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）此前預(yù)測，2024年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)測值為3.2%，2025年為3.3%，逐漸趨于穩(wěn)定，但增長動能偏弱。在地緣沖突加劇、國際貿(mào)易摩擦頻發(fā)、貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭的背景下，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景仍然存在一定的不確定性。隨著美國實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸、歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長回升和中國走出低迷，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將在未來幾年實(shí)現(xiàn)適度增長。</p><p>盡管主要央行正在轉(zhuǎn)向降息，但現(xiàn)在判斷政策歸類為限制性政策的“正常化”，還是防止經(jīng)濟(jì)增長進(jìn)一步放緩的第一步，還為時(shí)過早。IMF首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家古蘭沙（Pierre Olivier Gourinchas）表示：“隨著主要央行在收緊政策以應(yīng)對通脹爆發(fā)后進(jìn)入貨幣寬松周期，我們可能會看到其他市場波動事件，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在處于一個未知的領(lǐng)域?！?/p><p>美國9月降息可能會使其他主要央行放松貨幣政策的壓力減弱。不同的政策立場以及對央行下一步行動的預(yù)期一直是外匯市場的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動力。投資者在所謂的套利交易中尋求利率較高的貨幣，以提高其相對于利率較低的貨幣的價(jià)值。先鋒集團(tuán)歐洲投資戰(zhàn)略小組負(fù)責(zé)人薩利辛（Jumana Saleheen）表示：“其他央行的政策決定將主要取決于每個國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融狀況。但在一個全球互聯(lián)的世界里，其他央行不能忽視美聯(lián)儲對全球金融狀況的影響?！?/p><p>歐洲央行政策制定者正在對下月進(jìn)一步下調(diào)利率達(dá)成一致，部分原因是價(jià)格壓力緩和，但也因?yàn)樵鲩L前景明顯減弱。上個季度，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎沒有增長，因?yàn)樽畲蟮慕?jīng)濟(jì)體德國出現(xiàn)了收縮，制造業(yè)仍處于深度衰退，出口也出現(xiàn)了下滑。歐洲央行管委雷恩（Olli Rehn）在近日講話中稱：“歐元區(qū)最近負(fù)增長風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的增加，加強(qiáng)了在9月舉行的下一次歐洲央行貨幣政策會議上降息的必要性。”</p><p>其他發(fā)達(dá)國家中，瑞士和加拿大央行年內(nèi)已經(jīng)降息兩次，年內(nèi)可能繼續(xù)下調(diào)利率。英國央行時(shí)隔四年首次降息，麥格理資產(chǎn)管理公司研究主管麥科馬克（Daniel McCormack）預(yù)計(jì)，英國央行正在開始一個可能節(jié)奏適中但持久的寬松周期。澳大利亞和挪威可能在年末開始下調(diào)利率。</p><p>新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體也在躍躍欲試，菲律賓央行本月宣布下調(diào)政策利率以提振經(jīng)濟(jì)，這是自2020年11月以來的首次降息?！半S著通脹目標(biāo)的一致性，當(dāng)前的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)前景支持向限制性較小的貨幣政策立場進(jìn)行調(diào)整?！甭暶鞣Q，雖然通脹意外上升，但國內(nèi)增長乏力，對美聯(lián)儲即將降息的堅(jiān)定預(yù)期也強(qiáng)化了自身開始寬松周期的前景。</p><p>韓國央行上周維持利率不變，但表決結(jié)果顯示，多位委員表示對未來3個月降息持開放態(tài)度，這引發(fā)市場對未來政策走向的猜想。在下調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測后，韓國央行行長李昌鏞認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境更加復(fù)雜，金融穩(wěn)定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在上升。</p><p><strong>日本央行未來政策怎么走</strong></p><p>在全球開始進(jìn)入降息周期的大背景下，日本成為了為數(shù)不多逆周期行動的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。</p><p>然而在日本央行7月加息后，全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)引發(fā)巨震?？紤]到潛在關(guān)聯(lián)性，套息交易大規(guī)模平倉的影響也讓日本央行對下一步行動變得更加謹(jǐn)慎。</p><p><strong>上周公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于取消公用事業(yè)補(bǔ)貼后電價(jià)上漲。日本7月份核心消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)（CPI）同比增長2.7%，連續(xù)第三次加速，并創(chuàng)下自2月以來的新高。隨著通脹率上升，日本央行面臨進(jìn)一步緊縮壓力。日本央行行長植田和男23日在議會發(fā)表演講時(shí)表示，貨幣政策計(jì)劃繼續(xù)朝著正常化邁進(jìn)。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)和物價(jià)與預(yù)期相符，日本央行將加息。他補(bǔ)充道，日本央行正在密切關(guān)注金融市場動蕩對通脹的影響。</strong></p><p>不過機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為，盡管第二季度消費(fèi)反彈，但工資是否會上漲到足以彌補(bǔ)家庭生活成本上漲的程度仍存在不確定性。另一方面，加息將推高日元影響出口，進(jìn)而沖擊經(jīng)濟(jì)動能?！皣鴥?nèi)需求非常疲軟，”前日本央行董事會成員、現(xiàn)為東京慶應(yīng)義塾大學(xué)學(xué)者白井小百合說，“從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度來看，短期內(nèi)日本央行幾乎沒有理由加息?！?/p><p>利率期貨定價(jià)顯示，目前投資者預(yù)計(jì)日本央行將在9月的會議上維持利率不變，可能會在12月加息。澳新銀行外匯研究主管查曼（Mahjabeen Zaman）預(yù)測，從植田和男近期的表態(tài)來看，日本央行可能在10月提前行動?！爸蔡锖湍斜仁袌鲱A(yù)期的更加鷹派，他的講話語氣與他在7月日本央行會議上的語氣相似。股市和日元的波動并沒有真正改變他的觀點(diǎn)，日本央行的加息進(jìn)程還未完成。”她說。</p></div><div class="s3vnfxi" id="jb_report">舉報(bào)</div> <div id="xv8i4xh" class="statement"><div style="margin: 0;">第一財(cái)經(jīng)廣告合作，<a href="/others/gglx.html" style="text-decoration: underline;color:#4a4a4a" target="_blank">請點(diǎn)擊這里</a></div>此內(nèi)容為第一財(cái)經(jīng)原創(chuàng)，著作權(quán)歸第一財(cái)經(jīng)所有。未經(jīng)第一財(cái)經(jīng)書面授權(quán)，不得以任何方式加以使用，包括轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制或建立鏡像。第一財(cái)經(jīng)保留追究侵權(quán)者法律責(zé)任的權(quán)利。如需獲得授權(quán)請聯(lián)系第一財(cái)經(jīng)版權(quán)部：021-22002972或021-22002335；banquan@yicai.com。</div> <div id="mbj0bl4" class="person person-1 f-cb"><h4>文章作者</h4><ul> <a href="/author/449.html"><li id="eccrafq" class=""><span id="r81koq1" class="avatar"><img src="https://imgcdn.yicai.com/uppics/editors/448b360c59bdce4c58a9583f81acf728.jpg" onerror="imgError(this,7)"></span><p>樊志菁</p></li></a> </ul></div> </div></div> <div 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